IT WILL HAPPEN - FUELING THE FUTURE

Individual vehicles will continue far into the future; there is no evidence to suggest otherwise.  People like cars, and more and more families have gas-guzzling SUVs and RVs.  But necessity is the mother of invention and there is a solution appearing not too far away.

Hydrocarbon fuel is an increasing problem, environmentally, politically and – as we’re seeing at the gas pump – economically.  And it is the economic part of the equation that is mothering invention and will change society gradually but surely. Economics will drive technology; technology will drive social change.  This will apply to a wide spectrum of energy use, but in this short article I’m talking specifically about our beloved vehicles.

The internal combustion engine operating on gasoline or diesel oil will soon – but gradually of course - be replaced by an electrically operated engine powered by a fuel cell.  The fuel cell will use hydrogen.

There is every reason to believe hydrogen operated fuel cell vehicles might be available – and economically attractive - by 2010.  The US Department of Energy has set this date for a target cost of $30 per kilowatt for an automotive fuel cell - a comparable cost to today’s internal combustion engines.  All of the automakers and fuel cell manufacturers are working on meeting, or improving on, this target.  The main development problems – durability, cost, power to space requirement ratio and operating in freezing conditions – are all being solved.

Hydrogen production and distribution should not be a problem.  The US hydrogen industry currently produces enough hydrogen to power perhaps 20 million cars.  In other words, the industry already knows how to produce, handle and store hydrogen.  But where will all of the extra hydrogen we will need come from?  Most of the hydrogen produced in the US is by steam reforming of natural gas.  This will continue to be the main production source until we have sufficiently developed the sustainable resources technology necessary to provide our needs.  But hydrogen is the most abundant element; it can - and will be - produced from a wide variety of resources and technologies.

It all will happen.  In the meanwhile, fuel will become more expensive.  The worlds demand for energy is growing at an unprecedented rate.  The all-powerful law of supply and demand dictates fuel prices will continue to rise.  Governments will not try to influence this – rising prices give more momentum to a future fueled by hydrogen.

The industrial revolution of the 19^th century was fueled by coal.  The incredible growth of the 20^th century was fueled by oil.  The unimaginable development of the 21^st century will be powered by hydrogen.

It all will happen.  In the meanwhile we’ll all just grin and bear it as fuel prices rise.

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